So What? Military Implications of the PRC Gaining Control of Taiwan

*Update - Overseas Discussant added - Dr. Benjamin Blandin, a specialist based in Taiwan and expert on the region's naval competition*

YCAPS is excited to announce the next event in the Community Conversations seminar series in the Yokosuka Community! This event will feature Professor Jon Caverley, Visiting Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), who will guide us in a discussion titled: “So What? Military Implications of the PRC Gaining Control of Taiwan”. We will also be joined by discussant Dr. Benjamin Blandin who will provide comments to frame the discussion after Professor Caverley's presentation.

China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the US military to concentrate on stopping unification by force. Using a simple, replicable, three-component model of a “kill chain,” this presentation compares the potential effect of Chinese military capabilities, with and without Taiwan, on the shape and size of the contested zone in which US and allied air and naval forces would operate in wartime.

This talk presents three conclusions. First, because China already poses a significant military threat to US sea control and allied territory, the transformation of Taiwan into a fully pacified, militarized Chinese territory would make little difference to the broader military balance. Second, Chinese wartime space capabilities play a greater role in kill-chain effectiveness than any piece of territory. Third, even if a forcibly united Taiwan improves China’s ability to target US naval ships, this scenario only matters if there are ships left to target. Optimizing the US military for Taiwan’s defense risks undermining US and allied capabilities for a wider and lengthier conflict. Finally, the presentation recommends steps to defend Taiwan that would maintain an invasion as China’s—and not the United States’—“pacing scenario.”

Registration: Optional via this Google Form.

Schedule:

• 18:15-19:00 Refreshments & Networking (food & drinks)
• 19:00-20:15 Presentation and Q&A
• 20:15-20:30 Post Event Conversing

Location: *Please take note: We are back in our new location, The Yokosuka City Industrial Plaza, for this event!

Yokosuka City Industrial Exchange Plaza Salon Room

〒238-0041 Kanagawa, Yokosuka, Honchō, 3-chōme−27 メルキュールホテル横須賀
https://www.yokosuka-sanpla.jp/

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Speaker:

Professor Jon Caverley is a visiting Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), where he is completing a book on the global defense industrial base with support from the Defense Security Cooperation University. He is on leave as a professor in the Strategic & Operational Research Department of the Naval War College’s Center for Naval Warfare Studies. He recently served as the interim Director of the Naval War College Press.

An expert on naval force design, Dr. Caverley was the inaugural director of the Bernard Brodie Strategy Group from 2020 to 2022, and is a Research Affiliate in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His Ph.D. and M.P.P. are from the University of Chicago, and he received his A.B. in History and Literature from Harvard College. Prior to his academic career, Caverley was a U.S. Navy submarine officer.

Discussant:

Dr. Benjamin Blandin is a French researcher based in Taipei, currently affiliated with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR). Prior to his academic career, he worked as a Senior Consultant in strategy and innovation for leading firms including Accenture, Deloitte, and Capgemini, and subsequently in industry at Airbus Defence and Space. Dr. Blandin holds two Master’s degrees in geostrategy and geopolitics from Paris University, as well as a PhD in geopolitics from the Catholic University of Paris. He has also completed advanced training in maritime security and maritime strategy at the French Military Academy (IHEDN and CESM), and in international maritime law, with distinction, at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in Hamburg. His research focuses on China’s asymmetric warfare along the First Island Chain, for which he has developed original analytical frameworks. His work has been presented at academic, governmental, and military institutions at both regional and international levels, and published in over thirty articles and forty citations in the past three years

Format: This event will be off-the-record.

Registration: Optional via this Google Form
Moderators: Jeff Mazziotta, YCAPS Activites Coordinator
Seminar Cost: Free of charge