Reframing Cooperation in a Fragmented Indo-Pacific
By Genevieve Donnellon-May
The Indo-Pacific is at a crossroads. Five years after the onset of COVID-19 and amidst shifting geopolitical currents, the region is entering a period of recalibration. Strategic uncertainty has intensified as the United States redefines its role, China continues to expand influence, and middle powers seek to shape outcomes rather than react. Against this backdrop, the two-day workshop in Manila—“Indo-Pacific at a Crossroads: Taking Stock and Charting Future Trajectories,” organised by the Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR) with support from the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and hosted in partnership with the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University—took place on September 18–19, 2025 and brought together experts from across the region to assess how these dynamics are transforming the regional order.
A Shifting Strategic Landscape
Since 2020, the Indo-Pacific has seen accelerating realignments. The U.S.–China rivalry remains central, but influence is increasingly diffuse. Recent U.S. policy recalibrations—especially retrenchment in foreign aid and uneven strategic messaging—have created both concern and space for regional players.
For many participants, the biggest victim has been the rules-based order. International norms are eroding faster than expected, reducing confidence in multilateral frameworks and risking fragmented, transactional diplomacy. U.S. retrenchment has prompted the question of “who will fill the gap,” yet currently no actor appears ready or willing, thereby generating considerable uncertainty that affects regional stability.
Middle Powers and Regional Agency
Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia are stepping forward to fill functional gaps—through technology partnerships, supply chain resilience, and capacity-building initiatives. These countries are increasingly shaping outcomes independently, reflecting the reality that regional stability cannot rely solely on U.S.–China competition.
Yet participants stressed that credibility matters: regional actors prefer partners who do not overpromise and underdeliver. Many initiatives, though ambitious, have been implemented unevenly, making consistent follow-through a key determinant of trust and influence.
ASEAN Centrality and “Elastic Minilateralism”
ASEAN centrality remains crucial, providing a convening framework despite internal divergences. Beneath unity rhetoric, members pursue bilateral engagements with major powers to safeguard national interests. This has given rise to “elastic minilateralism”: flexible, issue-based cooperation that complements ASEAN rather than replaces it. Groups like the Quad, AUKUS, and trilateral partnerships allow practical collaboration on maritime security, digital governance, and energy transition without consensus constraints.
While this approach risks diluting ASEAN cohesion, it may also be a pragmatic adaptation to a new reality. With the Philippines set to chair ASEAN in 2026, the organisation’s ability to deliver on sensitive issues, particularly the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, will test whether current mechanisms remain fit for purpose.
A Region Searching for Stability
The Indo-Pacific’s flux is economic and normative as well as geopolitical. Supply chain diversification, digital trade, renewable energy, and food security are now strategic priorities. Yet fragmentation remains a risk. Participants highlighted that regional cooperation is increasingly short-term and transactional, undermining long-term confidence.
Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues, like the Manila workshop, are therefore vital. They preserve channels for exchange, build trust, and explore shared priorities in an era of uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
The Indo-Pacific’s future will hinge on regional actors’ ability to cooperate under constraint. Coordinated middle-power initiatives in technology, climate action, and inclusive trade could sustain stability, but unchecked rivalry and mistrust may accelerate the erosion of norms.
With the Philippines chairing ASEAN in 2026, the coming years will test regional resilience. Success will depend on open dialogue, credible commitments, and pragmatic adaptation rather than rhetoric. For now, the Indo-Pacific stands defined less by confrontation than by uncertainty—its trajectory shaped as much by the choices of middle powers and ASEAN as by great power competition.
