Summary by Davis Piper *
The YCAPS Pub Talk event, “Japan’s Demographic Challenge: Does It Need Immigration to Thrive? To Survive?”, was held on June 29, 2026, at What the Dickens! in Ebisu, Tokyo. The event was presented by the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, and Japan Expert Insights. It featured Dr. Murata Koji, Dr. Yu Korekawa, Professor Andrew Oros, and Dr. Maximilien Xavier Rehm, with Maya Matsuoka serving as moderator.
The discussion during the event focused on Japan’s falling birth rate, aging society, and long-term population decline. Moderator Maya Matsuoka started by framing immigration not as an existential threat or an emotional issue, but as a potential policy tool whose success depends on society's willingness to accept it and its design.
During the speakers discussion they explained that the demographic issue in Japan affects more than just its population size. Dr. Murata Koji discussed how Japan’s population could shrink dramatically in the coming decades and how this could affect its economy, education system, and national security. He also emphasized that Japan’s position as a major global economy will weaken as countries such as India and Indonesia continue to grow.
Professor Andrew Oros placed Japan’s demographic challenge in a broader regional context. He explained that population change is happening worldwide, but in the 21st century, it has become a major variable in politics, economics, and security. As countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam continue to grow, Japan’s shrinking population could contribute to a changing security environment in East Asia.
Dr. Yu Korekawa discussed immigration more directly, arguing that Japan lacks a clear enough immigration policy despite already being an immigration country in practice. He described population decline as a major structural challenge and argued that immigration should be seen as a societal strength rather than solely a problem.
Dr. Maximilien Xavier Rehm focused on Japan’s current labor force and foreign workers. He explained that Japan’s labor force is currently high because the country has brought more women and seniors into work, but that this domestic labor reserve is reaching its limit. He also noted that many immigrants coming to Japan are young, Asian, and motivated by work or education opportunities.
Overall, the event showed that immigration is not a complete solution by itself, but it will likely need to be part of Japan’s broader response to demographic decline, alongside workforce reform, productivity improvements, technology, and stronger social acceptance.
