On February 9, the YCPAS Indo-Pacific Maritime Hour Serieshosted CAPT Thomas Shugart (US Navy, ret.) and Professor Kerry Gershaneck todiscuss “Crossing the Taiwan Strait: How the PLA Can Do It and How Taiwan Can Resist.” Over one hundred participants joined the event and the speakers discussed both military and political realities in cross-strait relations. On the military side, the speakers discussed China’s sealift capacity, long-range precision strike, and other upgrades to China’s military capabilities. From the political perspective, concepts such as the Three Warfares and media warfare were discussed as well as the role of PRC United Front and disinformation operations. During the Q&A period, participants asked about the use of civilian ports, capabilities of civilian ships for military use, and will to fight. Comparisons were also made to previous historical events, and how China may need to balance the need for a “decisive effect” with trying to prevent intervention from partners and allies in the region.
For more on these topics, please see the speaker’s recent publications. CAPT Shugart analyzed the role of civilian shipping in an article in War on the Rocks Professor Gershaneck has written about political warfare in his book of the same title.